A map collated by experts at Imperial College London shows the likelihood of districts across the country becoming a Covid-19 "hotspot" throughout October. 

The map can be used to see what is projected to happen in the weeks ahead according to the rate of coronavirus infection. 

A "hotspot" is described as an area where the number of weekly reported cases per 100,000 population exceeds 50.

As of today, the highest risk area of Essex is Basildon, which, according to researchers, has a 74 per cent of becoming a hotspot.

In seven days time, that probability jumps to 90 per cent. 

As of today, Southend has a 32 per cent chance of becoming a hotspot, which increases to 58 per cent in seven days' time. 

The research suggests in Castle Point, there is a 48 per cent chance of the area becoming a hotpot as of today. 

In seven days' time, that probability increases to 66 per cent. 

The projections for future weeks assume a situation in which no change in interventions (e.g. local lockdowns) occur.

The probability of the R-value being above one - the rate at which the virus begins to spread - is above 90 per cent for the whole of the county. 

Here is the situation across Essex (the first figure represents the probability of becoming a hotspot today and the second figure represents that probability in seven days' time)

  • Thurrock, 37%, 60%
  • Brentwood 67%, 76%
  • Colchester 7%, 7% 
  • Rochford, 9%, 18% 
  • Chelmsford 35%, 57%
  • Braintree 21%, 40%
  • Maldon 14%, 25%
  • Tendring 5%, 14%